This past quarter, industrial metals was the strongest sector. Looking ahead, we believe commodity prices could continue to rally due to a possible U.S. easing and rising geopolitical risks.

Roll Yield Maintained Positive Performance

The UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR) was up 1.89% during the second quarter but underperformed the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which was up 2.89%. However, year-to-date, CMCITR outperformed BCOM by more than 2% (7.17% versus 5.14%).

While BCOM’s outperformance during the quarter was mostly attributed to a larger allocation in natural gas and precious metals commodities, CMCITR outperformed in roll yield. CMCITR’s curve positioning and roll methodology continue to outperform BCOM in a relatively flat roll yield environment.

CMCITR Outperformed in Q2 2024 Due to Roll Yield Contribution

Sector Lookback: Industrial Metals: Strongest Sector in Q2

Natural gas, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil led the energy sector in Q2. U.S. natural gas prices rose sharply primarily due to extremely warm weather in the U.S. and the continued war in Ukraine. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both rose about 2% in the quarter, however, products such as gasoil, heating oil, and unleaded gas, were slightly lower.

The agriculture sector declined in Q2, with only wheat and coffee being higher. Cocoa prices fell but were still up sharply for the year. BCOM’s zero allocation to cocoa ensured no negative contribution to performance for the quarter; however, the index missed out on the year-to-date contribution when the commodity showed returns of 100%.

Corn was down 10% and soybeans were down around 5%, which had negative impacts on the agriculture sector during Q2.

The industrial metals sector was the strongest in Q2, with total returns of around 9%. Copper increased 10% and zinc 21%, both of which were the strongest performers. CMCITR’s higher allocation to the sector helped relative performance versus BCOM but did not offset BCOM’s outperformance in energy and precious metals.

The precious metals sector rose in Q2 by 7%. Silver led the sector, increasing about 18% in the quarter. BCOM has a higher allocation to precious metals than CMCITR. Although the precious metals sector holds the smallest weight in both indices, its overweight in BCOM (20%) added positive contribution to returns (+1.1%) over CMCITR (weight: 6.3%).

The livestock sector fell in Q2 due to a decline of 11% in lean hog prices, which offset a small gain in live cattle prices.

Comparative Index Sector Weights

CMCITR’s higher weighting to Industrial Metals helped relative performance in Q2 2024

Outlook: Can Commodity Prices Continue to Rally?

Commodity prices could continue to rally in the second half of the year. The U.S. economy started to slow down in Q2, raising the chances of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in September 2024. If that happens, it is expected that the U.S. dollar will decline, thus helping to push commodity prices higher in the fall and winter. In addition to a possible U.S. easing, global geopolitical risks are rising. Concerns surrounding the candidates’ suitability for the U.S. presidential election later could also cause geopolitical risks to rise even further in the second half of 2024.

Learn more about the VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund and the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF (CMCI), which seeks to track, before fees and expenses, the CMCITR.

Disclosures

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

All indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR) is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across 29 commodity components from within five sectors, specifically energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural and livestock.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) provides broad-based exposure to commodities, and no single commodity or commodity sector dominates the index. Rather than being driven by micro-economic events affecting one commodity market or sector, the diversified commodity exposure of BCOM potentially reduces volatility in comparison with non-diversified commodity investments.

UBS AG AND ITS AFFILIATES (“UBS”) DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, SELL, OR PROMOTE CM COMMODITY INDEX FUND (THE “PRODUCT”). A DECISION TO INVEST IN THE PRODUCT SHOULD NOT BE MADE IN RELIANCE ON ANY OF THE STATEMENTS SET FORTH IN THIS WEBSITE. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT IN THE PRODUCT ONLY AFTER CAREFULLY CONSIDERING THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INVESTING IN THE PRODUCT, AS DETAILED IN THE PROSPECTUS THAT IS PREPARED BY OR ON BEHALF OF VANECK (“LICENSEE”), THE ISSUER OF THE PRODUCT. UBS HAS LICENSED CERTAIN UBS MARKS AND OTHER DATA TO LICENSEE FOR USE IN CONNECTION WITH THE PRODUCT AND THE BRANDING OF THE PRODUCT, BUT UBS IS NOT INVOLVED IN THE CALCULATION OF THE PRODUCT, THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE PRODUCT’S METHODOLOGY OR THE CREATION OF THE PRODUCT, NOR IS UBS INVOLVED IN THE SALE OR OFFERING OF THE PRODUCT, AND UBS DOES NOT MAKE ANY REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE PRODUCT AND DISCLAIMS ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY INACCURACY, ERROR OR DELAY IN, OR OMISSION OF THE DATA.

Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.

VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund: You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. Commodities are assets that have tangible properties, such as oil, metals, and agriculture. Commodities and commodity-linked derivatives may be affected by overall market movements and other factors that affect the value of a particular industry or commodity, such as weather, disease, embargoes or political or regulatory developments. The value of a commodity-linked derivative is generally based on price movements of a commodity, a commodity futures contract, a commodity index or other economic variables based on the commodity markets. Derivatives use leverage, which may exaggerate a loss. An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, but are not limited to, risks related to active management, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodity regulatory, credit, derivatives counterparty, derivatives, government-related bond, index tracking, industry concentration, investments in money market funds, interest rate, LIBOR replacement, market, operational, and subsidiary investment risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation, liquidity, interest-rate, valuation and tax risks. Gains and losses from speculative positions in derivatives may be much greater than the derivative’s cost. At any time, the risk of loss of any individual security held by the Fund could be significantly higher than 50% of the security’s value. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. The Fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities.

VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF: An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in the agricultural commodity sector, commodities and commodity-linked instruments, commodities and commodity-linked instruments tax, derivatives counterparty, energy commodity sector, metals commodity sector, U.S. treasury bills, Subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory and tax risks with respect to investments in the Subsidiary, gap, cash transactions, credit, debt securities, interest rate, derivatives, commodity index tracking, repurchase agreements, regulatory, market, operational, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and commodity index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation, liquidity, interest-rate, valuation and tax risks. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. The Fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities. The level of derivatives counterparty risk may be heightened due to the Fund currently only having a single counterparty available with which to enter into swap contracts on the Index.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

© 2024 Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.

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